This text isn’t about the environmental debate—not really. It’s about what happens when you don’t ask the right questions before making decisions and why it’s crucial to compare your options before acting—a lesson that applies to anyone running a business.

Extreme Electricity Prices: A Lesson in Planning

On December 11th, Sweden experienced extreme electricity prices—a major news story that saw reporters on the streets asking how people were coping with rates exceeding 43p per kWh. That’s 5–10 times the usual cost. For many on tight budgets, this was a catastrophe, and the public outrage was understandable.

A Green Transition with Blind Spots

A few years ago, Sweden embarked on an ambitious green energy transition. Nuclear power, once a cornerstone of our energy supply, was deemed environmentally unfriendly, and the nation opted for wind turbines and solar panels instead. On paper, this seemed like a noble goal—after all, who doesn’t want a greener future?

However, some politicians raised critical questions: How will we ensure energy stability? Critics highlighted the risks of relying on weather-dependent energy sources like wind and solar. What happens during cloudy or windless days? And would increased reliance on energy imports from neighboring countries be wise during times of crisis? Unfortunately, these concerns were largely ignored.

Sweden’s decision to shut down nuclear power plants began in earnest in 2015, with closures at Ringhals 1 and Ringhals 2 shortly after. At its peak, Sweden operated ten nuclear reactors, but this number has now dropped to six.

Fast forward to today, and the consequences of these decisions are becoming increasingly evident.

New Pricing Model, New Problems

A recent shift to a flow-based capacity calculation model has further exacerbated the situation. This model, designed to optimize electricity transmission and comply with EU regulations, has led to soaring domestic prices. During peak demand periods this week, electricity prices in southern Sweden reportedly surged to almost 6 SEK/kWh (approximately 43p). While this system may prioritize efficiency at a European level, it has intensified cost pressures for Swedish consumers and businesses.

Lessons for Business and Policy Leaders

These developments underscore the importance of robust risk assessment and scenario planning—a lesson that extends beyond energy policy to business management. When Sweden decided to phase out nuclear power, critical “what-if” questions were overlooked:

• What if there’s no wind or sunlight?

• What if we need to repair the remaining nuclear plants?

• What if we become overly reliant on imports?

Instead of weighing all potential options, the focus was narrowly placed on achieving a singular goal: becoming “green.”

In business, as in energy policy, decisions shouldn’t be framed as simply for or against an idea. Effective planning requires evaluating all possible scenarios and carefully balancing risks and rewards. Sweden’s energy challenges serve as a cautionary tale: without thorough planning and risk analysis, even the most well-intentioned initiatives can backfire.

The Key Question for Smart Decision-Making

By learning from Sweden’s missteps, we can all make smarter decisions. Success lies in asking the right questions before committing to a course of action. The question isn’t simply, “Yes or no?” Instead, it should be framed as, “This or that?”